Another Blair prediction

The ever accurate Sunday People predicts that Blair will quit at 6pm on 24th July. Assuming this has any significance, it would mean Brown a replacement would be in by Labour’s September conference. However will Blair really be able to continue after his predicted beating in the May elections?! Surely not.

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Is it Mili-Me that has 2020 Vision?

Writing in the FT, James Blitz argues that the 2020 vision website launch yesterday was “a last prod to see if Mr Miliband would stand”. He argues, quite convincingly, that Miliband is the only one who could beat Brown.

Leaving aside the fact that there is no way Mili-Me will risk his political career on this one, yesterday’s announcement sounds more like a, not so subtle, start to Alan Milburn’s campaign for the leadership than a cry for Miliband to stand. Remember Milburn has always been quite keen on a fight with Brown and has never ruled himself out.

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Looks like there could be more…

We get to see what Alan Milburn and Charles Clarke are up to tomorrow after their “we’re worried about the Labour party under Brown” email.  Look out for an exciting new website.

Rumours over the weekend suggested that John Denham may enter the ring.  He’s not cabinet but well liked.

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Backseat driving

I always thought that when he became leader, Brown would send Blair abroad to avoid the problems Major faced from old Maggie, who haunted him from the Lords.  Blair would suit some overseas job- he’s certainly spent alot of time abroad.  But before he can do this, there is the matter of what to do with his parlaimentary seat.

According to the weekend gossip, Tony wants to resign his Parliamentary seat in the autumn.  This clearly presents a dilemma for Brown.  He can’t have Blair hanging around the backbenches but an early by-election could cause problems, even in such a safe seat as Sedgefield.  Perhaps Blair should just spend less time in Westminster and more in his constituency for a while- his voters might even like that.  

Hattip: The first Post 

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It’s the economy - stupid!

Today’s Telegraph/YouGov poll certainly supports what we saw in the Guardian poll on Wednesday - 29% would prefer Cameron, to 24% for Brown. But what is certainly the most worrying thing for Brown is that the voters are beginning to distrust Labour over the economy - New Labour and Brown’s biggest asset. Interesting though, it seems that a lot of people (28%) are sceptical about either party’s ability to manage the economy.

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Then there were three…

Michael Meacher to challenge Brown for the leadership. Will there be more?

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Tomorrow’s Guardian will be worrying reading for Brown

The ICM poll in tomorrow’s Guardian gives the Tories a 13 point lead, when participants were asked to choose between a Brown or a Cameron government. This gives the Tories their highest lead since 1992.

The poll was conducted last weekend when Cameron was being criticised over his alleged drug habits at school. We know from Brown’s biography he never admitted taking drugs. Perhaps a toke wouldnt be a bad thing at this stage, it seems to do wonders with the voters.

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Mili-Me will not stand

The speculation mill has been at full capacity this week. Just as everyone speculated about Alan Johnson and John Reid last year, they’re attention has now turned to David Mili-Me.* Can David stand up and beat the Goliath Brown?

Writing in the Guardian, Frank Field called for Labour to “skip a generation” and for Mili-Me to stand against Brown for the leadership of the Labour party. Mil-Me has indicated his discomfort with the direction Brown will take things- He wrote in the Times that Brown had to be “bold Labour not Old Labour” and his gaff on Question Time showed his distaste for Brown.

However, for all the speculation, Miliband will not stand. Not only is he far to young and inexperienced, but the rules of the leadership game are against him and stacked up in favour of Brown. So what’s his attention seeking all about- it’s to ensure he has a seat at the Cabinet table under Brown. Perhaps Foreign Secreatary?!

milime.jpg

* David Miliband is the Prime Minister’s favorite mini-me. Miliband even walks and talks like Blair.

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No referendum on EU Constitution under Brown

Le Monde gives a possible insight into Brown’s future position on Euorpe.  According to the article he will not accept any agreement on the EU Constitution which requires a referendum and will only accept technical changes.  This is to avoid the “virus” of Europe contaminating his leadership.

Certainly this is what Brown would like to happen, but what he ends up agreeing to may be quite different.

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You may have to wait till 2009

The News of the World believes that Brown will wait until May 2009 before holding an election, so he can combine it with the EU elections.  This is a smart political move.
It’s smart because Europe is such a contentious issue for the Tories and UKIP will make important inroads into the Tory vote.  However Brown’s going to be under pressure to get a mandate from the public soon after taking office.  Certainly the public feel he should do this- for example see this poll of the over 50s which shows 77% want him to have an early election.  Even so this seems unlikely, for the most part Brown can’t afford it.

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