The cost of campaigning

Last weekend the Tories started asking why Gordon hasn’t declared any expenses for his forthcoming Leader election campaign.

These initial inquiries have been followed up with an article in today’s Times which not only suggests that the Labour party is trying to prevent the Electoral Commission from overseeing the election, but that Brown’s campaign is hidden within the “Treasury or third party organisations like the Smith Institute”.  Like we didn’t know.

As the article points out, Brown could argue that there is no campaign going on or that there is no campagin website, so he doesn’t need to declare anything.  Well, he’s appointed Jack Straw to manage it, so certainly there must be a team for him to manage.  And everyone knows, even at an early stage, running a campaign costs money.

There is certainly some activity on the web too.  As Dizzy has discovered the back end preparations for Gordon’s leadership website are well underway.  All the domains for gordonbrown4leader@ have been registered by silverfish TV, the political campaign company whose clients include the Treasury.

Of course the last thing Brown wants to do is declare his official campaign this early by announcing what’s been spent and who’s been funding it.  But if this pressure continues, he may have to.

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A weekend of sustained attack on Brown

With bad polls, disastrous local election predictions and rumours of Reid planning to stand for the leadership contest (someone certainly won’t get a seat at Brown’s table now), Brown is certainly having a bad weekend.

But to make matters worse someone has dug up some of Brown’s old published work from the 1970s.  The guide apparently informs the reader how to “scrouge off the state, con private firms and use and abuse the system”.  Certainly little has change..now most of us legally rely scrouge off the welfare state.

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Crisis after crisis for Brown

What a week for Brown over pensions.  But like any story it’s all about the timing.   Let us not forget that the Tories and the MSM have been telling us all these things about Brown since he was made Chancellor in 1997.   What’s different now is these stories can cause more damage.  So prepare for more as we are reminded  of the other mistakes Brown has made.  This pension issue could give someone like Clarke the excuse they need to stand against Gordon, especially after it overshadowed the launch of Labour’s official campaign in Scotland.

Now i’m sure we’ll soon be reminded of how Brown sold off all the gold at rock bottom prices (they even call it the ‘Brown bottom’ in honour of the effect it had) or how last years EU budget will mean we have to give “our money back” to the EU.

 

 

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The fools of April likely to challenge Brown

The Telegraph lists some of the likely challengers to Brown for the leadership of the Labour party. My money’s on John Stuart Mill.

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The best thing for the Blairites to do is not field a candidate

In another day of speculation about the Labour leadership contest, the Guardian tells us that the Blairites are scrabbling around to find a viable candidate to face Brown to prevent his “bandwagon running out of control and sweeping up more Blairite ministers in a canvassing operation.” They may yet find themselves a willing sacrifice candidate. However, the best thing for the Blairites to do would be not to field a candidate.

Brown is currently being trouced in the polls. There may be a bounce when he is finally crowned king, but it will be short lived because voters have already made up their minds about Brown’s ability to run the country. Brown also faces the challenge of renewing the Labour party whilst still in power, a difficult feat that no one has achieved before. Under these conditions it appears he will lose the next election.

The next election will be the equivalent of the 1992 election: the one Major should have lost. It is the one Labour should lose. We have a Tory party that under Cameron is beginning to change and become electable again. But this is presently all spin, there is little or no substance in the way of policy. Cameron’s Conservatives will not have made the fundamental changes needed to prepare for government by the time an election is called in 2009. If Cameron does win, it will be on a wafer thin majority without the necessary ideological direction needed to bring about fundamental change to the British political landscape. Cameron will be in government but not in power and it will not last long.

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Mirror regurgitates exclusive

Today’s Mirror has an exclusive on David Mili-Me. The headline screams “Exclusive: I do not want to be PM,” yet no where in the article is Mili-Me actually quoted as saying this. The article is in fact a regurgitated story found in almost all of today’s papers. In the article Miliband’s only comment (which can be found almost everywhere else) is what a wonderful job Brown will do as PM.

Although I am convinced Mili-Me will not stand, someone still needs to ask him a question such as this one, suggested by Iain Dale.

“General Sherman once said: ‘If drafted I will not run. If nominated I will not accept. If elected I will not serve’. Lyndon Johnson said something similar: ‘I shall not seek and I will not accept the nomination of my Party…’ Do these quotes sum up your position vis a vis the Labour Party leadership?”

Let’s see him wiggle out of that one!

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Husting alone

Although it seems certain that someone will get the 44 signatures needed to stand against Brown for the leadership contest (even if it’s to make Brown’s coronation appear democratic) it’s interesting to find that Brown would have to campaign even if he was the only candidate.  Hustings will certainly be fun.

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No Super Thursday for us

The Sunday People’s on a roll. Last week it predicted when Blair would stand down. This week it’s when the next election will be- 11th June 2009 if the People is to be believed.

The political editor Nigel Nelson notes that the Government have changed the date of the local elections from May to June 2009 to coincide with the European election. Brown also wants to hold the general election on that day.- A good move by my account.

Nelson then goes on to suggest that the Government wants to eventually hold the Welsh, Scottish and London Mayoral elections on the same day- making it a “Super Thursday” polling day!

Well the mayoral, general election and some of the local elections could all coincide in 2024.* The Scottish and Welsh elections could never coincide unless one of their terms were extended. However you are also unlikely to get the UK general election on the same day, because of the nature of the election system.

Unless there is some major fiddling with the electoral cycles, I can’t see there being anything special with Thursdays in the near future.

*Calculations:
Mayor: every 4 years- 2008, 2012, 2016, 2020, 2024, 2028
EU: every 5 years- 2009, 2014, 2019, 2024, 2029
Scottish/Welsh: every 4 years- 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019, 2023, 2027
UK: every 4-5 years or earlier- 2009?, 2013?, 2017?, 2021?
or 2009?, 2014?, 2019?, 2024?

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No snap election under Brown, Blair says

In another meandering wide-ranging interview, this time with the Observer, Blair informs us that Brown will not hold a snap election.  No surprises here- Blair clearly knows Labour can’t afford an election.  And 2009 could be such a better year.

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Ming Deal or No Deal?

Ming’s speech to the Lib Dem Spring Party Conference is being spun as a shopping list for a lib-lab deal if, as frequently predicted, we are faced with a hung parliament at the next election.   But was this speech soley aimed at Brown?

Campbell did not include electoral reform in his tests, but did include a number of areas in which the Tories seem to have similar commitments (no to ID cards, tackle Climate Change etc etc). Could this also be an olive branch to the Tories?  Is Ming playing both sides?

He may have said no when asked at the conference, (he had to) but can he continue to resist when offered the position of Foreign Secretary?

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