The Man Who Will Be King

Well, it looks like Gordon’s done it. Brown has secured 309 nominations against John McDonnell’s 29 thus making it impossible for Mr McDonnell to reach the required 45 nominations. Officially the nomination period closes at 12:30 today but it’s as good as over.

The deputy leadership race remains interesting with Hilary Benn limping towards the required 45 nominations, all the other candidates have secured the necessary support. The leadership graph is up-to-date as of 6pm yesterday with the details.

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Leadership maths- day 2

The updated figures are up on the Labour website and it seems that John McDonnell has increased his support by 2, now on 29 (a long, long, long way to go).

See who is supporting John here. It seems that no cabinet minsters are willing to risk their political careers, and Gordon’s wrath, by supporting John.

In the Deputy Leadership contest, Jon Cruddas has now got enough to stand and Hilary Benn has increased to 40 from 34…but still a way to go.

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Leadership maths

Labour have put up the number of nominations each candidate for the Leader and Deputy Leader contests have.

John McDonnell still needs 18 more bribes, friends, ideas supporters if he’s going to get on the ballot. This morning on the Today programme, Brown indicated that he has no intention on “lending” John any of his own votes, so this seems very unlikely.

In comparison the Deputy leadership contest appears more exciting. Hilary Benn currently looks like the only candidate who’s not going to make it on the ballot, with Alan Johnson in front (he’s supposedly even got the support of John Prescott).

Call back soon for our graphical interpretations of these results.

Update - See the sidebar for the amazing, Technicolor deputy leadership tracker.

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Campaign officially launched

Gordon has officially launched his campaign. His campaign website is now up (courtesy on Silverfish)

www.gordonbrown.org

It has a Gordon Moblog where you can look at pictures of Gordon excitingly preparing his speech. Doesn’t he look happy.

Update 

What can we gather from his speech?

Well, Gordon tried to suggest he would be a unifier, with a “cabinet of all the talents”.  During the Q & A, someone asked if this would include other political parties, Gordon wouldn’t rule it out (A hint that Ming could get a job after the next election then?!).

Gordon also suggested that he’s not going to give up on Constitutional reform (no doubt a promise to Jack to look at Lords reform), increase power to Parliament and to consult on a draft of the Queen speech over the summer….sounds very deliberative.

Brown also said that we need to deal with the mistakes made in Iraq…whatever can he mean?

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Brightening up the leadership blues

Reid has given the clearest indication yet he’s not going to stand, barring a late entry from Clarke, it looks as if the Blarities are going to pave the way for a short Brown Government. The Blairite’s best move in my opinion.

Given that the leadership battle is potentially going to be pretty boring (the Lefty candidates have decided to combine their votes) the Would Be King team have decided to try and brighten it up through the power of graphs.

According to our “official” figures, this represents the current state of play.

race_to_number10_2.PNG

Key:
Magenta=Gordon, blue=McDonnell, yellow=Meacher, grey=undecided

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Mili-Me EU deal?

Le Croche-Pied is spreading an interesting rumour about why Miliband isn’t standing against Brown.  It suggests there was an agreement between Blair and Brown over the EU Constitution, with Miliband agreeing to support Brown on the condition that Brown agrees to have a proactive European policy.  I thought it was because Mili-Me realised he won’t get the votes he needs, couldn’t beat Brown and would sacrifice his political career.  

There have been some suggestions that Brown is willing to take a more proactive approach towards the EU.  David Rennie wrote this sometime ago, pointing out Brown’s attempt to build bridges with our European partners.

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Brown’s unofficial official campaign begins

Labour MPs are being canvassed to vote for Brown as the rumour spreads that Blair will resign on 9th May. The Guardian has some initial figures of support giving:

Brown - 217 MPs

McDonnell - 40 MPs

Meacher - 3 MPs

That leaves 92 undecided, clearly enough for a Blairite challenger.

Update. 21st March:

The Telegraph is reporting that Brown has 200.  It reports that Miliband believes he does not have enough support from MPs to challenge Brown.

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Scottish business snubs Labour says SNP

There’s an interesting accusation the SNP are putting about today concerning Labour’s Scottish campaign.  Supposedly, Labour sent out a letter to business chiefs in an attempt to sure up support against Scottish independence.  Unfortunately this had to be withdrawn after no one was willing to sign it.  Looks like this says more about how unpopular Labour is rather than business being in favour of independence. 

As an example of good timing, Gordon’s visiting a Scottish ship yard in Scotstoun today to speak about how well the Scottish economy is doing.

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Brown to stay till 2014?

“Brown will only be PM for seven years”, the Indy tells us today, quoting one of Brown’s closest colleagues.  But this certainly appears more like a false promise intended to convince others not to challenge him, than a real pledge.

Such a pledge would put the next election in 2010, whereas it seems certain to be in 2009.  If Brown does win this election, then there’s a good chance he’ll try to hang on for as long as possible.  Power is addictive: Brown would only leave when the position is finally wrestled from his big clunking fists.

What this does show is that if the Brown camp are coming up with coded deals to convince Blairites not to stand, they’re clearly scared of a challenge.

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Independent conundrum

The Scottish election polls show there is little appetite for independence in Scotland, only an appetite for Labour blood.  This could be particularly damaging to Gordon Brown, who has put himself at the front of the election campaign.  Yet if the SNP win, which it seems is likely, they will hold a referendum on independence.  Can anyone tell me why the majority of a minority are allowed to decide the future of the minority of the majority of the UK, which will certainly have knock on effects for everyone?

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